HR Stacks ResearchQ4 2026 edition · Original research

100+ Skills-Based Hiring Statistics and Trends 2026, With a 50-State Degree Tracker

The figures employers need on skills-based hiring: who uses it, how far degree requirements have really fallen, which assessments predict performance and what changes when firms follow through. Every figure is checked against 49 primary sources, alongside two HR Stacks datasets: a 50-state tracker of degree requirement reform in state government and an audit of skills features in 20 applicant tracking systems.

Data reviewed16 October 2026
CoverageUS, EU and 56 countries
Research byAlex Vate and Manjuri Dutta

Key findings · Six numbers

Skills-based hiring is winning the argument. It is not yet winning the hiring process.

Three findings come from HR Stacks research and three from the strongest official or peer-reviewed data. Together they show the gap between policy and practice that runs through this report.

Original data
32/50

US states have an action in force removing or reviewing degree requirements for state government jobs. 15 of them first acted in 2023.

Source: HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker, Oct 2026

Original data
7 of 32

state actions only order a review of degree requirements rather than removing them. Without them, 25 states have removed requirements outright.

Source: HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker, Oct 2026

Original data
3 of 20

applicant tracking systems we audited include built-in skills tests. 15 rely on partner add-ons, though 18 offer AI matching or screening.

Source: HR Stacks ATS Skills Feature Audit, Oct 2026

Nov 2025
19.3%

of US job postings required a bachelor’s degree or higher in November 2025, up from 16.6% two years earlier.

Source: Indeed Hiring Lab

2014 to 2023 data
1 in 700

Corporate degree removal changed not even 1 in 700 US hires, because few roles were rewritten and fewer hires followed.

Source: Burning Glass Institute and Harvard Business School

Survey Oct to Nov 2025
23%

of US employers removed degree requirements in the past three years, yet about 75% still prefer a bachelor’s when the job does not need one.

Source: Lumina Foundation and Gallup

At a glance

Skills-based hiring statistics at a glance: the 22 numbers that matter

Each figure shows its period and source. Use Copy to take the sentence with its source attached.

How widely employers hire for skills

  1. 1

    70% of employers use skills-based hiring for entry-level roles, up from 65% a year earlier.

    NACE Job Outlook 2026, survey Aug to Sep 2025
  2. 2

    34% of organizations use skills-first hiring often or almost always, while 25% rarely or never do.

    SHRM Foundation, survey Oct 2025
  3. 3

    23% of US employers removed degree requirements in the past three years, yet about 75% still prefer a bachelor’s when the job does not need one.

    Lumina Foundation and Gallup, survey Oct to Nov 2025
  4. 4

    42% of employers screen entry-level candidates by GPA, down from 73% in 2019.

    NACE Job Outlook 2026

Degree requirements in job postings

  1. 5

    19.3% of US job postings required a bachelor’s degree or higher in November 2025, up from 16.6% two years earlier.

    Indeed Hiring Lab, Nov 2025
  2. 6

    51% of US job postings list no formal education requirement at all.

    Indeed Hiring Lab, Nov 2025
  3. 7

    About 4.6% of UK job postings require a bachelor’s degree or higher, and only about 14% mention any education requirement.

    Indeed Hiring Lab UK, to Jun 2024
  4. 8

    25.2% of US jobs typically need a bachelor’s degree at entry, yet 44.5% of employed workers hold one.

    BLS 2025; US Census Bureau 2024

The policy gap and government action

  1. 9

    Not even 1 in 700 US hires changed after large firms dropped degree requirements, because only 3.6% of roles actually dropped them.

    Burning Glass Institute and HBS, 2014 to 2023 data
  2. 10

    37% of firms that removed degree requirements changed who they hired; 45% changed in name only.

    Burning Glass Institute and HBS, 2024
  3. 11

    32 of 50 US states have an action in force on degree requirements for state jobs; 25 have removed them outright.

    HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker, Oct 2026
  4. 12

    2.5 points a year is how fast state degree pledges cut degree requirements in state job postings.

    NBER Working Paper 33220, postings 2015 to 2024
  5. 13

    101 days was the average federal time to hire in FY2024, against an 80-day target for FY2026 and FY2027.

    US Office of Personnel Management, 2026

Who gains from skills-based hiring

  1. 14

    6.1x larger talent pools come from hiring on skills instead of job titles worldwide, and 15.9x in the US.

    LinkedIn Economic Graph, data to Jan 2025
  2. 15

    Women’s share of US AI talent pools would rise 24% under skills-based hiring, from 25% to 31%.

    LinkedIn Economic Graph, 2025
  3. 16

    70 million+ US workers are skilled through alternative routes rather than a degree; 33 million have the skills for higher-wage jobs.

    Opportunity@Work, Oct 2026
  4. 17

    783,000 good jobs have been regained by STARs, after 7.4 million were closed to them between 2000 and 2020.

    Opportunity@Work, State of the Paper Ceiling 2026

Assessment, outcomes and AI

  1. 18

    Structured interviews predict job performance at .42, against .07 for years of job experience.

    Sackett et al., Journal of Applied Psychology, 2022
  2. 19

    Non-degree hires at leader firms had retention 10 points higher than degree holders, plus an average 25% salary increase.

    Burning Glass Institute and HBS, 2024
  3. 20

    1,850,034 unique credentials are offered in the US, from 134,491 providers.

    Credential Engine, Counting Credentials 2025
  4. 21

    3 of 20 applicant tracking systems include built-in skills tests; 16 offer structured interview scorecards.

    HR Stacks ATS Skills Feature Audit, Oct 2026
  5. 22

    AI-exposed entry-level jobs are 7x more likely to require senior skills such as leadership and judgment.

    PwC 2026 Global AI Jobs Barometer

01 · Adoption

Skills-based hiring adoption: 70% say they use it. About 1 in 3 use it consistently.

Adoption estimates run from 23% to 70% because each survey counts something different. NACE asks about any use in early-career hiring, SHRM asks how often skills decide hires, and Lumina-Gallup asks whether a degree requirement was actually removed.

For wider workforce context, see our HR statistics. Teams putting this into practice usually start in their applicant tracking system.

What percentage of employers use skills-based hiring?

70% of US employers use skills-based hiring for entry-level roles (NACE, survey Aug to Sep 2025), up from 65% a year earlier. Consistent use is lower: 34% of organizations use skills-first hiring often or almost always (SHRM Foundation, Oct 2025), and 23% removed degree requirements in the past three years (Lumina-Gallup, Oct to Nov 2025).

Three surveys, three definitions of adoption

Share of employers or organizations, 2025 surveys

SHRM Foundation how often skills drive hiring

Lumina-Gallup degree requirements removed

Who they count: NACE surveys 183 employers hiring new graduates; SHRM surveys 1,184 HR professionals about all hiring; Lumina-Gallup surveys 2,000 hiring decision-makers. The SHRM middle band is the remainder.

Sources: NACE Job Outlook 2026; SHRM Foundation, The Skills-First Movement; Lumina Foundation and Gallup, 2026

Where employers apply skills-based hiring

Employers using skills-based hiring for entry-level roles, Job Outlook 2026

Source: NACE Job Outlook 2026. Spring 2026 update: nearly 70% still use it (185 employers, Feb to Mar 2026)

GPA screening has fallen by 31 points

Employers screening entry-level candidates by GPA

73%
42%
2019Job Outlook 2026

Source: NACE Job Outlook 2026

Most HR teams expect skills-first hiring to grow

HR professionals, next three years, survey Oct 2025

70%expect skills-first practices to play a larger role
80%expect employers to prioritize AI competencies
82%say AI changes which skills are valued
55%of low users want to adopt the approach

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

India is ahead of the world on dropping degree requirements

Employers planning to remove degree requirements and move to skills-based hiring

19%
30%
GlobalIndia

47% of employers now see diversifying talent pools as a way to improve talent availability, up from just over 10% in the 2023 edition. 43% expect to keep degree requirements through 2030.

Sources: World Economic Forum, The future of jobs in India; Future of Jobs Report 2025, workforce strategies. Survey of 1,000+ employers, 14M+ workers

02 · Job postings

Degree requirements in job postings bottomed out in 2023. They are rising again.

Indeed’s US data shows the share of postings asking for a bachelor’s degree climbed from 16.6% to 19.3% in two years, even after adjusting for the mix of jobs. That runs against most employer surveys.

The same tightening shows up in office attendance rules, tracked in our hybrid work statistics.

US postings requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher

Share of Indeed US job postings, two editions of the series

The two editions use different series, so read each pair on its own. On an occupation-adjusted basis the share bottomed at 18.5% in March 2024 and stood at 18.6% in November 2025.

Sources: Indeed Hiring Lab, Jan 2026; Indeed Hiring Lab, Feb 2024

What US job postings ask for

Education requirements in Indeed US postings, November 2025

No formal requirementOther education (remainder)Bachelor’s or higher

In January 2024, 52% of postings named no requirement, against 48% in 2019.

Source: Indeed Hiring Lab, 2026 and 2024

19.3%

of US postings require a bachelor’s degree or higher (Nov 2025)

but
about 4.6%

of UK postings do, and only about 14% mention any education requirement (to Jun 2024)

Sources: Indeed Hiring Lab US; Indeed Hiring Lab UK. Almost 50% of US postings name some education requirement.

Degree requirements by state

Share of Indeed postings requiring a bachelor’s, November 2025

Unadjusted, D.C. leads at 43.7%, followed by Washington state at 31.5%. Adjusted figures remove the effect of each state’s occupation mix.

Source: Indeed Hiring Lab, Jan 2026

Postings vs the workforce

US, latest year

25.2%of US jobs typically need a bachelor’s at entry (BLS, 2025)
44.5%of employed workers hold a bachelor’s or higher (Census, 2024)
59.0%of jobs typically need high school or less (our calculation from BLS)
$96,480median wage in bachelor’s-entry occupations vs $50,980 overall

Sources: BLS Employment Projections; US Census Bureau

Degree requirements before the skills-first push

US postings requiring a bachelor’s, landmark study

23%
34%
~37%
200720102019

Measured on 120.7 million postings, an increase of more than 60%. A different dataset from Indeed, so the levels are not comparable.

Source: Blair and Deming, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2020

Degrees still pay in the labor market

US workers aged 25+, 2025

Median weekly earnings. Unemployment: 2.8% bachelor’s, 3.4% all, 4.3% high school.

Source: BLS, 2025 (11-month average)

03 · Policy gap

Dropping the degree line rarely changes who gets hired

Removing a degree requirement from a posting takes minutes. Changing hiring takes rewritten scorecards, trained interviewers and HRIS and ATS setups that record skills, not just education fields.

The best evidence on what happens next comes from hiring records, not surveys.

1 in 700

Not even 1 in 700 US hires changed after large firms dropped degree requirements

because
3.6%

of roles at those firms actually dropped the requirement, and non-degree hiring into them rose only 3.5 points

Source: Burning Glass Institute and Harvard Business School, 11,300+ roles, about 65M career histories, 2014 to 2023.

What happened at firms that removed degree requirements

Firms grouped by outcome after removal

37%Skills-based hiring leaders raised non-degree hiring by nearly 20%
45%Changed in name only
18%Backsliders: short-term gains that later reversed

Source: Burning Glass Institute and HBS, 2024

The math behind 1 in 700

Burning Glass Institute and HBS

97,000extra non-degree hires a year, of about 77 million
0.14%net change in non-degree hiring across all roles
+3.5 ptsnon-degree hiring into roles that changed
11,300+roles tracked at large firms

Source: Burning Glass Institute and HBS, 2024

Employers drop the degree but keep the preference

US hiring decision-makers, survey Oct to Nov 2025

The preference splits by the employer’s own education: 89% of degree-holding decision-makers vs 54% of others.

Source: Lumina Foundation and Gallup, 2026

Credentials do not fill the gap on their own

Over 1,000 large US employers

2 ptsrise in credential-holder hires after dropping degrees
11 ptsgap between top and bottom 10% of firms
58%of prime-age workers do not hold a degree

The study found no link between how often firms ask for credentials in postings and how often they hire credential holders.

Source: OneTen and Burning Glass Institute, Mar 2026

Top barriers to skills-first hiring

HR professionals at organizations using it to any degree, survey Oct 2025

Scale 0 to 40%.

86% of HR professionals and 91% of supervisors hit hurdles that slowed progress.

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

04 · HR Stacks research

32 of 50 states have moved on degree requirements. Fewer have removed them outright.

We checked every state and DC against governor orders, statutes and state HR pages to see which have an action in force on 16 October 2026. Public employers matter here because their rules and results are published, which makes them the clearest test case for any employer rewriting job requirements in its recruitment software.

32states with an action in force
25removed requirements outright (excluding review-only)
14acted through legislation alone
11acted through an executive order
15first acted in 2023, the peak year
16states with no statewide action found
In forcea signed order, enacted law or adopted agency policy on degree requirements, in effect on 16 Oct 2026Pendingannounced or planned, with no requirement removed yetNone foundno statewide action found in official sourcesScope: All or most jobs; Named job classes; Review only (orders a review, removes nothing itself)
US state actions on degree requirements for state government jobs, as of 16 October 2026
StateStatusAction typeFirst actionInstrumentScopePublished result
AlabamaSouthIn forceLegislationMay 2024SB 55 (2024)Review only–Source
AlaskaWestIn forceExecutive orderFeb 2023Administrative Order 343All or most jobs–Source
ArizonaWestIn forceLegislationApr 2023HB 2225 (2023)Review only–Source
ArkansasSouthNone found–––––
CaliforniaWestIn forceExecutive orderAug 2023EO N-11-23Review onlyNearly 30,000 state jobs opened (Dec 2024)Source
ColoradoWestIn forceExecutive orderApr 2022EO D 2022 015All or most jobs–Source
ConnecticutNortheastIn forceLegislationJun 2023Public Act 24-151All or most jobsBaseline: 157 of 1,885 job classes require a degree (Dec 2023)Source
DelawareSouthIn forceAgency policyJan 2024Dept. of Human Resources policyNamed job classesAbout 560 positions (Jan 2024)Source
District of ColumbiaDistrictNone found–––––
FloridaSouthIn forceLegislationJun 2023SB 1310 (2023)All or most jobs–Source
GeorgiaSouthIn forceLegislationApr 2023SB 3 (2023)Review only791 requirements removed or reduced (Nov 2024)Source
HawaiiWestIn forceLegislationJul 2025Act 276 (2025)All or most jobs–Source
IdahoWestIn forceLegislationMar 2024H 433 (2024)All or most jobs–Source
IllinoisMidwestIn forceLegislationAug 2025SB 1884 (PA 104-0397)All or most jobs–Source
IndianaMidwestIn forceExecutive orderJan 2025EO 25-15All or most jobs91.3% of positions, 29,305 (Dec 2025)Source
IowaMidwestNone found–––––
KansasMidwestIn forceLegislationMar 2025SB 166 (2025)All or most jobsUnder 15% of employees in degree-requiring jobs (Mar 2025)Source
KentuckySouthNone found–––––
LouisianaSouthIn forceLegislationJun 2024HB 566 (Act 655)All or most jobs–Source
MaineNortheastNone found–––––
MarylandSouthIn forceAgency policyMar 2022DBM policy changeAll or most jobs–Source
MassachusettsNortheastIn forceExecutive orderJan 2024EO 627All or most jobsOnly 7% of positions carry an education requirement (Jan 2024)Source
MichiganMidwestIn forceLaw + order/policyOct 2023ED 2026-3 + 2023 veterans changeReview only–Source
MinnesotaMidwestIn forceExecutive orderOct 2023EO 23-14All or most jobs–Source
MississippiSouthNone found–––––
MissouriMidwestIn forceLegislationJul 2023HB 417 (2023)All or most jobs–Source
MontanaWestPending–Aug 2025EO 5-2025 (406 JOBS)––Source
NebraskaMidwestNone found–––––
NevadaWestIn forceLegislationMay 2025AB 547 (2025)All or most jobs–Source
New HampshireNortheastNone found–––––
New JerseyNortheastIn forceExecutive orderApr 2023EO 327Review only–Source
New MexicoWestPending–Apr 2026State Personnel Office review––Source
New YorkNortheastIn forceAgency policyJan 2024Dept. of Civil Service reviewNamed job classesNearly 800 titles, close to 20,000 positions (Oct 2025)Source
North CarolinaSouthIn forceExecutive orderMar 2023EO 278All or most jobsAbout 75% of job classifications (Mar 2023)Source
North DakotaMidwestNone found–––––
OhioMidwestIn forceExecutive orderMay 2023EO 2023-10DAll or most jobs–Source
OklahomaSouthNone found–––––
OregonWestNone found–––––
PennsylvaniaNortheastIn forceExecutive orderJan 2023EO 2023-03All or most jobs92% of state jobs, about 65,000 positions (Jan 2023)Source
Rhode IslandNortheastNone found–––––
South CarolinaSouthNone found–––––
South DakotaMidwestIn forceExecutive orderApr 2023EO 2023-05All or most jobs–Source
TennesseeSouthIn forceLegislationApr 2022HB 1916 (Pub. Ch. 823)All or most jobs–Source
TexasSouthIn forceLegislationJun 2025HB 3923 (2025)Review only–Source
UtahWestIn forceLaw + order/policyMar 2021HB 139 (2021) + agency policyAll or most jobs98% of 1,080 classified jobs need no degree (Dec 2022)Source
VermontNortheastNone found–––––
VirginiaSouthIn forceLaw + order/policyMay 2023DHRM policy (2023) + SB 1014 (2025)All or most jobsAlmost 90% of classified positions (May 2023)Source
WashingtonWestIn forceLaw + order/policyMar 2024SHB 2216 (2024) + HB 2309 (2026)All or most jobs–Source
West VirginiaSouthNone found–––––
WisconsinMidwestNone found–––––
WyomingWestNone found–––––
Showing all 51 (50 states and DC)Scroll the table to see every state

Action in force, by region

States with an action in force / states in region

Source: HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker, Oct 2026. US Census regions; DC excluded.

How states acted

32 states with an action in force

LegislationExecutive orderLaw plus order or policyAgency policy

Scope: 23 cover all or most state jobs, 7 only order a review and 2 cover named job classes.

Source: HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker, Oct 2026

What states report after acting

Published results on state government pages. Different measures, do not rank.

Utah98%of 1,080 classified jobs need no degreeJob classifications, Dec 2022
Pennsylvania92%of state jobs, about 65,000 positionsPositions, Jan 2023
Indiana91.3%of positions (29,305) need no degree; 147 classifications (16.9%) still do, so 83.1% are degree-freePositions and classifications, Dec 2025
Virginia~90%of classified positions had degree requirements or preferences removedPositions, May 2023
North Carolina~75%of state job classifications do not require a degreeClassifications, Mar 2023
Massachusetts7%of current positions carry an education requirementPositions, Jan 2024
California~30,000state jobs opened to candidates without degreesJobs, Dec 2024

These figures count different things (positions, job classes or postings) at different dates, so they are shown side by side rather than ranked.

Source: state government pages, collected in the HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker

What is changing

Announced, pending or follow-up actions

MontanaPendingEO 5-2025 (406 JOBS) plans skills-based hiring but removes no requirement yetAug 2025
New MexicoPendingState Personnel Office reviewing skills-based hiring; no rule adoptedApr 2026
MichiganFollow-upED 2026-3 limits education preferences above minimum requirementsMay 2026
WashingtonFollow-upHB 2309 extends its 2024 law2026
Vermont, South Carolina, OklahomaBillsBills introduced but not enacted (H.3, S. 272, SB 724)2025 to 2026

Source: HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker. No state action has been rescinded.

Large states with no statewide action

Searches of governor, legislature and state HR sites found nothing

WisconsinKentuckyOklahomaSouth CarolinaOregonIowa

These six have no statewide action in force. Iowa’s State Auditor changed requirements for its own office only. Opportunity@Work’s count of 33 includes Montana, which we hold as pending.

2states pending: Montana and New Mexico
0state actions rescinded since 2021

Source: HR Stacks 50-State Degree Tracker, checked 16 Oct 2026

The count, as others publish it

States acting on degree requirements, third-party trackers

32states by end 2025, including 9 that joined in 2025 (Opportunity@Work, Jan 2026)
33states “and counting”, June 2026, including Montana (Opportunity@Work)
25 + 1states and a territory with directives, Feb 2025 (NGA)

Sources: Opportunity@Work; NGA

Indiana: the deepest published audit

State of Indiana, EO 25-15 report, Dec 2025

91.3%

29,305 positions no longer require a degree. 147 classifications (16.9%) still do.

Source: State of Indiana, EO 25-15 report

Does state reform change postings?

State government job postings requiring a bachelor’s degree

Brookings, 12 months before vs after

51.1%to41.8%

Above-median-wage state roles, states acting by April 2023
NBER, per year of exposure

−2.5 pts

Postings open to non-degree workers rose from an expected 63.3% to 67.6% (2.4M+ postings, 25 states)

Degree requirements by occupation, 12 months before vs after a state commitment

Postings not requiring a degree, NGA: Maryland 32% to 47% and Colorado 48% to 58% (2022 to 2024); Massachusetts 26% to 34% and Virginia 58% to 90% (2019 to 2024).

Sources: Brookings Institution, 2024; NBER Working Paper 33220; National Governors Association, Feb 2025

Federal skills-based hiring milestones

US federal government, 2020 to 2028

Jun 2020

Executive Order 13932 tells agencies to review degree requirements

Mar 2022

Maryland becomes the first state to drop four-year degree requirements for thousands of jobs

Dec 2024

Chance to Compete Act requires technical assessments instead of self-rated questionnaires

Feb 2025

NGA counts 25 states and 1 territory with skills-based hiring directives

May 2025

Merit Hiring Plan sets the 80-day time-to-hire goal

Sep 2025

Texas HB 3923 takes effect, a legislative route

Mar 2026

Compliance deadline for the rule of many candidate ranking

FY 2028

Full federal implementation target

70%+of the federal workforce in jobs with no degree requirement (end 2024)
101 daysaverage federal time to hire, FY2024 baseline
80 daystarget and cap set by OPM for FY2026 and FY2027
91.23%of delegated examining announcements used only self-report questionnaires, FY2025
75%competency-based assessment target for FY2026 (about 20% in FY2024)

Sources: OPM Agency Priority Goals FY2026 to 2027; OPM Chance to Compete report, FY2025; OPM time-to-hire memo, Sep 2026; OPM implementation plan; NGA; Opportunity@Work, Jan 2026

05 · Talent pools

Hiring on skills instead of job titles expands talent pools 6.1x

LinkedIn compared candidate pools built on past job titles with pools built on shared skills across 56 countries, using data to January 2025. The gain is largest in the US and India, which matters if you hire across borders directly or through an employer of record.

Some of that hidden talent works on contract, covered in our gig economy statistics.

Talent pool increase by country

Multiple of the job-title pool when matching on skills

Every country saw its pool grow. Slovenia had the smallest gain.

Source: LinkedIn Economic Graph, 2025

AI roles gain more than other jobs

Talent pool increase, AI engineering vs other roles

6.1x
8.2x
15.9x
16.7x
22.1x
Other roles, globalAI roles, globalOther roles, USAI roles, USAI roles, India

The global AI gain is 34% larger than for other jobs.

Source: LinkedIn Economic Graph, 2025

Who gains most: small multiples

Talent pool increase under skills-based hiring, global unless stated, same data

By generation

By education

Green jobs by country

By industry

17.6xUS Gen Z pool, 25.7x for AI jobs
86.4xIndia, real estate and equipment rental
+18%larger green-job gain for workers without degrees
19%non-degree advantage in the Philippines (Chile 18%, Denmark 17%)
36%non-degree advantage in education (utilities 33%)

Source: LinkedIn Economic Graph, 2025

Hiring the skills you find in another country

A skills-based search can surface strong candidates in other countries. An employer of record lets you hire them without a local entity. Compare providers in our employer of record ranking, or start with these reviews.

More EOR reviews: RemoFirst, Pebl and Papaya Global. Side by side: Deel vs Remote, Remote vs Multiplier and Multiplier vs Oyster HR.

06 · Who gains

Women, STARs and workers without degrees gain most, and slowly

Talent pool math only matters if it reaches people that degree filters screen out. For the wider representation picture, see our DEI statistics. Many STARs work on contract first, which is where freelancer management software comes in.

Skills-based hiring raises women’s representation

Women’s share of talent pools, job titles vs skills

Women in US AI talent pools

Women in global AI talent pools

Women among US DevOps architects

+24%relative rise in women’s share of US AI pools (+8% globally)
+13%in the most male-dominated jobs globally (US +16%, Germany +13%, UK +12%)
1.8xlarger application lift for women than men when shown skills matches

Source: LinkedIn Economic Graph, 2025

70 million+ STARs in the US workforce

Workers skilled through alternative routes rather than a bachelor’s degree

70M+US workers skilled through community college, military, apprenticeships or work
33M“Rising STARs” in low- and middle-wage jobs with skills for higher-wage work
3M“Shining STARs” already in high-wage jobs
~Halfof the US workforce

Source: Opportunity@Work, Who are STARs?. The page body cites over 75 million

The paper ceiling is lifting

State of the Paper Ceiling, 2026 edition

7.4Mgood jobs closed to STARs, 2000 to 2020
783,000jobs regained by STARs
~600,000jobs open to STARs in the partner network, up nearly 20% in a year
52%of network STARs moved up, against 39% nationally
62%of historically degree-required postings open to STARs in 2025, up from 57%
37%of employers changed degree requirements

The 2025 edition reported 7.5 million jobs lost, more than 10% regained, 500,000+ partner postings in 2024, and 30 years for STARs to match graduate starting pay.

Sources: Opportunity@Work, Jun 2026; 2025 edition

Credentials raise first-year pay most for Black and Hispanic workers

Annual wage gain one year after earning a non-degree credential, vs matched peers

Source: OneTen and Burning Glass Institute, Mar 2026

07 · Global

One in five EU graduates works below their qualification level

Outside the US the debate is less about degree requirements in postings and more about mismatch: graduates in jobs that do not need their degree. Official statistics offices measure it differently, so the cross-country figures below sit side by side and are not ranked.

If you hire in these markets, our employer of record guide compares providers by country coverage and price.

Over-qualification rate by country

Tertiary-educated workers aged 20 to 64 in jobs that do not need a degree, 2025

Scale 0 to 40%. One Eurostat method across these countries, so they are ranked. Spain (34.0%) and France (20.4%) are flagged by Eurostat for a different definition and are left out of the ranking.

EU trend: 21.8% (2015), 22.2% (2022), 21.5% (2024), 21.4% (2025). Non-EU citizens: 41.4% against 20.0% for nationals. Ages 25 to 34: 21.3%.

Source: Eurostat, lfsa_eoqgan, 2025

OECD: how well workers’ qualifications and skills fit their jobs

OECD average, Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), workers aged 25 to 65, 2022 to 2023

By qualification level of education vs job

By skills tested skills vs job

Well matchedOver-qualified or over-skilledUnder-qualified or under-skilled
~5%productivity gain OECD economists estimate from closing skills mismatch (over 8% in Canada and Japan)33%of Irish workers are over-skilled, against the 26% OECD average

Sources: Central Statistics Office Ireland, PIAAC 2023 (OECD averages); Andrews, Égert and de La Maisonneuve, OECD economists, 2025

National mismatch figures

Each country uses its own definition, so these are not comparable

United States42%Recent graduates aged 22 to 27 in jobs that do not typically need a degree; their unemployment rate is about 5.6%Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2026 Q2
India53%Graduates underemployed (36% of postgraduates); 8.25% of graduates in high-competency rolesEconomic Survey 2024-25, PLFS 2023-24
Canada25.6%Recent immigrants with postsecondary education in jobs needing high school or less (13.2% Canadian-born)Statistics Canada, 2024 to 2025
England67.9%Graduates in high-skilled jobs, against 23.7% of non-graduates (79.0% of postgraduates)Department for Education, 2024
Australia~1 in 2Workers who feel overeducated for their job; about a quarter feel overskilledMelbourne Institute, HILDA 2026 (2024 data)

Do not rank these figures. They measure graduates, immigrants, all workers and self-reported fit on different bases.

08 · Assessment

What actually predicts job performance: structured interviews beat years of experience

Once a degree filter comes off, something has to replace it. The strongest evidence on what works comes from meta-analyses of selection methods, and it favors structured interviews and job knowledge tests run through tools like video interview software. After the hire, talent management platforms keep skills profiles current.

Validity of selection methods for predicting job performance

Corrected validity coefficients, revised meta-analytic estimates

Scale 0 to .50. Higher means a stronger predictor.

The revision cut older estimates sharply: structured interviews from .51, work samples from .54, cognitive ability from .51 (later revised to .23). Structured interviews vary widely between employers (lower 80% credibility value .18), so interview design matters. Years of education was not re-estimated.

Source: Sackett, Zhang, Berry and Lievens, Journal of Applied Psychology 2022, restated 2023

Natural field experiment

AI voice interviews vs human recruiters

70,884 applications, customer service roles in the Philippines, Mar to Jun 2025

+12%job offers
+18%job starts
+17%30-day retention
78%of applicants chose the AI interviewer when offered

Reported gender discrimination: 3.30% with AI interviewers vs 5.98% with humans. Working paper, not yet peer reviewed.

Source: Jabarian and Henkel, SSRN 2025

Which skills-first methods organizations use

Organizations, survey Oct 2025

Direct tests lag: 53% of HR professionals have not adopted or considered project-based assessments, and 59% have not tried mock sessions.

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

Unique credentials offered in the US

Credential Engine counts by report year

0.33M20180.74M20190.97M20211.08M20221.85M2025
334,1142018 report
738,4282019 report
967,7342021 report
1,076,3582022 report
1,850,0342025 report

The 2025 count of 1,850,034 credentials from 134,491 providers includes 1,022,028 badges, partly because badge platforms reported more completely than before.

Source: Credential Engine, Counting Credentials 2025

Only about 1 in 8 credentials pays off

Credential Value Index, 23,000+ commonly earned credentials

1 in 8

credentials produces a meaningful wage or career boost against matched peers. A short list of high-value credentials per role beats blanket acceptance.

Source: OneTen and Burning Glass Institute, Mar 2026

Credentials are everywhere. Trust in them is not.

US HR professionals, supervisors and workers, survey Oct 2025

45%
70%
77%
87%
72%
78%
Workers holding a credentialHR seeing credentialed applicantsOrganizations using credentials in hiring
20212025
36%of credential holders had employer help paying
24% / 33%HR / supervisors find credential quality too hard to judge
65% / 90%HR / supervisors say verification has moderate to very high impact
85%of HR would accept a non-degree candidate with a reliable skills assessment

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

09 · Outcomes

Firms that follow through keep non-degree hires longer and pay them more

Most outcome claims for skills-based hiring come from vendor case studies. This chapter uses hiring records and a survey of more than 1,100 HR professionals. Read the survey results as associations, not proof of cause. Pair them with your own employee retention metrics and our employee recognition statistics, and track engagement with employee engagement software.

+10 pts

higher retention for non-degree hires at skills-based hiring leaders than for degree holders in the same roles

and
+25%

average salary increase for those workers, worth over $12,400 a year

Source: Burning Glass Institute and HBS, 2024. Two-year retention: 58% for non-degree hires vs 48% for degree holders.

Frequent skills-first users report better results

Organizations by frequency or capability, survey Oct 2025

86%
78%
35%
27%
63%
51%
46%
34%
37%
28%
Positive cultureExceed financial goalsMeet or beat financial goals, can assess skillsLow turnover, project-based testsBeat financial goals, mock sessions
Uses the practice often or has the capabilityDoes not

Frequent users also report higher engagement (59% vs 31%), satisfaction (59% vs 37%) and commitment (61% vs 47%).

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

Skills-first rates about as well as degree requirements

Share rating each method effective for finding successful hires

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

Workers want skills-first employers

US workers, survey Oct 2025

58%prefer employers that emphasize skills-first hiring
78%prefer employers that upskill
35% vs 25%job hunting at employers without vs with upskilling support

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

10 · Employer cost

Hiring costs $5,475 per role. Most ATS platforms still outsource the skills test.

Skills-based hiring adds steps to a process that is already slow and expensive. We audited 20 applicant tracking systems on their own product and pricing pages to see which ones support it out of the box.

The cost of a hire

US employers, SHRM benchmarking, survey Jan to Mar 2025

$5,475average cost per nonexecutive hire
$35,879per executive hire, nearly 7x more
~6 weekstime to fill, executive and nonexecutive
20%of organizations track quality of hire

Sources: SHRM 2025 Benchmarking; SHRM State of Recruiting 2025

Employers struggle to fill roles. Few cut degree requirements.

ManpowerGroup 2026 Talent Shortage Survey, 39,063 employers in 41 countries (research firm survey)

Scale 0 to 40%. Employer responses to talent shortages.

72% of employers globally report difficulty filling roles (US 69%, India 82%, Germany 83%, UK 73%). JOLTS: 7.1 million US job openings in August 2026.

Sources: ManpowerGroup 2026; BLS JOLTS, Aug 2026

HR Stacks research · ATS Skills Feature Audit

Which applicant tracking systems support skills-based hiring

Checked on each vendor’s product, help and pricing pages on 16 October 2026. Prices are each vendor’s published starting price, not negotiated rates.

3/20include built-in skills tests
15offer skills tests only through partner add-ons
12offer skills matching or a skills taxonomy
16offer structured interview kits or scorecards
18offer AI matching or screening
12publish no price (quote only)
Skills features in 20 applicant tracking systems, checked on vendor pages, 16 October 2026
PlatformSkills testsSkills matchingScorecardsAI matchingStarting price
GreenhouseAdd-onYesYesYesQuote only
LeverAdd-onYesYesYesQuote only
AshbyAdd-onNoYesYes$400per month
WorkableYesYesYesYes$299per month
TeamtailorAdd-onYesYesYesQuote only
SmartRecruitersAdd-onYesYesYes$14,995'Starting at' Essential plan; unit not stated
iCIMSAdd-onYesNoYesQuote only
Workday RecruitingNoYesYesYesQuote only
BambooHRRead reviewAdd-onNoNoNo$250per month flat
Rippling (Recruiting)Read reviewAdd-onNoYesYesQuote only
HiBob (Bob Hiring)Read reviewAdd-onYesYesYesQuote only
Recruitee (Tellent)Add-onNoYesYesQuote only
JazzHRAdd-onNoYesYes$1,000per year
Breezy HRAdd-onNoYesAdd-on$157per month
ManatalAdd-onYesYesYes$15per user per month
Zoho RecruitYesYesYesYes$30per recruiter per month
PinpointAdd-onNoYesYesQuote only
PaylocityRead reviewAdd-onNoNoYesQuote only
EightfoldNoYesNoYesQuote only
PhenomYesYesYesYesQuote only
Showing all 20 platformsYes: on the vendor’s own page. Add-on: partner integration only. No: not found.

More comparisons: BambooHR vs Workday, Deel vs Rippling and BambooHR vs Deel. Payroll-led suites: Paylocity, Paychex, ADP and OnPay reviews.

Choosing an ATS for skills-based hiring?

Compare applicant tracking systems on scorecards, assessments, AI screening and real published pricing.

Compare ATS software

12 · AI outlook

AI is pushing entry-level jobs up the skills ladder

AI changes which skills employers screen for and how fast they go stale. That puts more weight on hiring for adaptable skills and building them in-house, for example through an internal talent marketplace.

PwC 2026 Global AI Jobs Barometer

7x

AI-exposed US entry-level jobs are 7 times more likely to require traditionally senior skills such as leadership and judgment. These “seniorized” roles grew 35% since 2019, while other entry-level openings shrank 10%.

62%AI skills wage premium (57% a year earlier)
+69%growth in AI-skill postings vs 9% for all jobs
118%premium in consumer markets (government 16%)

Source: PwC, Jun 2026. 2.4M US entry-level postings; 1B+ job ads in 27 countries and territories.

39% of core skills will change by 2030

Employers, World Economic Forum Future of Jobs 2025

39%expected skill disruption by 2030 (44% in 2023)
50%of workers completed long-term training (41% in 2023)
63%of employers name skills gaps as the top barrier

Source: World Economic Forum, 2025

HR expects AI to raise demand for human skills

HR professionals, supervisors and workers, survey Oct 2025

Source: SHRM Foundation, 2026

AI in hiring today

Adoption and trust, 2025 and 2026

39%of organizations have AI in HR; recruiting is the top use at 27% (SHRM, 2026)
22%of CHROs say a leader stopped entry-level hiring due to AI (Gartner, 4Q25)
26%of candidates trust AI to evaluate them fairly (Gartner, 1Q25)
30 rolescovered by shared skills taxonomies, 35M US jobs and 25% of the private workforce

Sources: SHRM State of AI in HR 2026; Gartner, Jul 2026; Gartner, Jul 2025; Burning Glass Institute, Sep 2025. Gartner figures are research firm surveys.

Methodology · How we built this report

How HR Stacks built and checked this report

Every figure was read on the publisher’s own page or PDF. Figures are labelled with their data period, and anything we calculated says so.

50-State Degree Tracker

We checked all 50 states and DC against governor orders, statutes, legislature records and state HR pages. Secondary trackers were used only to find candidates. Status reflects 16 October 2026.

ATS Skills Feature Audit

We checked 20 applicant tracking systems on their own product, help and pricing pages. A feature counts as Yes only when the vendor describes it as native.

Source rules

Government agencies, statistics offices, peer-reviewed journals and named research groups first. Research firm surveys are labelled. No vendor blogs or statistics roundup sites.

Dates and definitions

Each figure shows its data period. Where sources measure different populations we show both and explain the difference rather than ranking them.

Update log: Q4 2026 edition

Figures changed in this edition
FigurePreviousNowSource
States acting on degree requirements32 (end 2025)32 confirmed by HR Stacks tracker; 33 per Opportunity@Work Jun 2026HR Stacks; Opportunity@Work
Good jobs lost to STARs7.5M7.4M (2000 to 2020)Opportunity@Work 2026
Jobs regained by STARsMore than 10%783,000Opportunity@Work 2026
Postings open to STARs500,000+ (2024)About 600,000, up nearly 20%Opportunity@Work 2026
STARs skilled for higher-wage jobs31.9M33M Rising STARsOpportunity@Work STARs page
STARs already in high-wage jobs2.8M3M Shining STARsOpportunity@Work STARs page
Diversifying talent pools (WEF)67% India vs 47% global47%, up from just over 10% (corrected pairing)WEF Future of Jobs 2025
Indeed US bachelor’s share, earlier point17.6% (Oct 2024)16.6% (Nov 2023); 17.6% not found in sourceIndeed Hiring Lab
Indeed pre-pandemic share~20%20.4% (2019)Indeed Hiring Lab, Feb 2024
Credential Engine "2020" count967,734 (2020)967,734 (2021 report); 738,428 (2019) addedCredential Engine
Credential wage gain, Asian workers$1,431Removed: not stated in report textOneTen and BGI
Degree removal impact wordingFewer than 1 in 700Not even 1 in 700Burning Glass Institute and HBS
Federal time to hire80-day goal101 days FY2024 baseline; 80-day cap from Sep 2026OPM
NACE adoption70%70% (Fall 2025 survey); nearly 70% (Spring 2026)NACE
All sources (49)
All sources used in this report
TitlePublisherPeriod
Job Outlook 2026: employer use of skills-based hiringNACESurvey Aug to Sep 2025
2026 Job Outlook, Spring UpdateNACESurvey Feb to Mar 2026
The Skills-First MovementSHRM FoundationFeb 2026 (survey Oct 2025)
State of Higher Education 2026, Employer ReportLumina Foundation and GallupSurvey Oct to Nov 2025
Future of Jobs Report 2025: workforce strategies and skills outlookWorld Economic ForumJan 2025
The future of jobs in IndiaWorld Economic ForumApr 2025
Where do college degrees still matter in a skills-first job market?Indeed Hiring LabData to Nov 2025
Educational requirements are gradually disappearing from job postingsIndeed Hiring LabData to Jan 2024
UK job postings and formal education requirementsIndeed Hiring Lab UKData to Jun 2024
Employment Projections: education summaryUS Bureau of Labor Statistics2025 to 2035
Unemployment and earnings by educationUS Bureau of Labor Statistics2025
Educational attainment in the United States: 2024US Census Bureau2024
Job ad degree requirements, 2007 to 2019Blair and Deming, AEA Papers and Proceedings2020
Skills-Based Hiring: The Long Road from Pronouncements to PracticeBurning Glass Institute and Harvard Business SchoolFeb 2024
Credential Fluency: The Hiring Advantage in the Race for SkillsOneTen and Burning Glass InstituteMar 2026
Skills-First Workforce Initiative expands to 30 rolesBurning Glass InstituteSep 2025
Degree requirements in state government jobs (Working Paper 33220)NBERDec 2024
States are leading the effort to remove degree requirementsBrookings InstitutionMay 2024
Empowering Progress: skills-based strategies in the public sectorNational Governors AssociationFeb 2025
How skills-based hiring transformed the public sector in 2025Opportunity@WorkJan 2026
Who are STARs?Opportunity@WorkCurrent page, Oct 2026
State of the Paper Ceiling 2026Opportunity@WorkJun 2026
State of the Paper Ceiling 2025Opportunity@WorkApr 2025
Executive Order 25-15 reportState of IndianaDec 2025
FY 2026 to 2027 Agency Priority GoalsUS Office of Personnel ManagementMar 2026
Chance to Compete Act consolidated report to CongressUS Office of Personnel ManagementFY2025
Chance to Compete Act implementation planUS Office of Personnel Management2025
Time-to-hire guidance under the Merit Hiring PlanUS Office of Personnel ManagementSep 2026
Skills-Based Hiring: Increasing Access to OpportunityLinkedIn Economic GraphData to Jan 2025
Counting Credentials 2025Credential EngineDec 2025
2026 Global AI Jobs BarometerPwCJun 2026
Labor market for recent college graduatesFederal Reserve Bank of New York2026 Q2
Over-qualification rate (lfsa_eoqgan)Eurostat2025
PIAAC 2023: skills mismatchCentral Statistics Office Ireland (OECD averages)2022 to 2023 survey
Adult skills and productivity: new evidence from PIAAC 2023OECD economists via VoxEU/CEPRJul 2025
Economic Survey 2024-25, Chapter 12Ministry of Finance, Government of IndiaPLFS 2023-24
Job mismatch among immigrants with postsecondary educationStatistics Canada2024 to 2025
Graduate labour market statisticsUK Department for Education2024
HILDA Statistical Report 2026 releaseMelbourne Institute2024 data
Revisiting the design of selection systemsSackett, Zhang, Berry and Lievens2022 and 2023
Voice AI in firms: a natural field experiment on automated job interviewsJabarian and Henkel, SSRNMar to Jun 2025
2025 Benchmarking: recruitingSHRMSurvey Jan to Mar 2025
State of Recruiting 2025SHRMOct 2025
State of AI in HR 2026SHRMApr 2026
Job Openings and Labor Turnover SurveyUS Bureau of Labor StatisticsAug 2026
2026 Talent Shortage SurveyManpowerGroup (research firm survey)Oct 2025 fieldwork
AI automation and entry-level hiringGartner (research firm survey)4Q25 survey
Candidate trust in AI evaluationGartner (research firm survey)1Q25 survey
Is college worth it?Pew Research CenterSurvey Nov to Dec 2023

FAQ · Questions

Skills-based hiring FAQ

What percentage of employers use skills-based hiring?

70% of US employers use skills-based hiring for entry-level roles, according to NACE’s Job Outlook 2026 survey, up from 65% a year earlier. Consistent use is lower: SHRM Foundation found 34% of organizations use skills-first hiring often or almost always, and Lumina-Gallup found 23% removed degree requirements in the past three years.

Are degree requirements in job postings going down?

Not right now. Indeed Hiring Lab found 19.3% of US job postings required a bachelor’s degree or higher in November 2025, up from 16.6% in November 2023, after falling between 2019 and early 2024. In the UK only about 4.6% of postings require a bachelor’s.

Does removing degree requirements change who gets hired?

Rarely. Burning Glass Institute and Harvard Business School found corporate degree removal changed not even 1 in 700 US hires, and only 37% of firms that dropped requirements actually hired more people without degrees. Those that did saw 10-point higher retention for non-degree hires.

How many states have removed degree requirements for state jobs?

HR Stacks’ 50-State Degree Tracker found 32 of 50 states had an action in force on 16 October 2026 that removes or reviews degree requirements for state government jobs. Seven of those only order a review, so 25 states have removed requirements outright. Maryland was first, in March 2022.

How much does skills-based hiring expand the talent pool?

LinkedIn Economic Graph found that matching candidates on skills instead of job titles expands talent pools 6.1x globally and 15.9x in the US. AI roles gain 8.2x globally, and India’s AI talent pool grows 22.1x.

What is the best predictor of job performance in hiring?

In the revised meta-analysis by Sackett and colleagues (2022), structured interviews had the highest validity at .42, followed by job knowledge tests at .40 and work samples at .33. Years of job experience scored .07 and unstructured interviews .19.

Does skills-based hiring improve retention?

At firms that followed through, non-degree workers hired into roles that used to require a degree had retention 10 percentage points higher than degree holders, with two-year retention of 58% vs 48%, according to Burning Glass Institute and HBS. They also saw an average 25% salary increase.

What software do you need for skills-based hiring?

Most teams run it through their applicant tracking system, using structured scorecards, skills fields and assessments. In HR Stacks’ audit of 20 ATS platforms, 16 offered interview scorecards but only 3 had built-in skills tests; the rest rely on partner add-ons. Compare options in our applicant tracking software guide.

How is AI changing skills-based hiring?

PwC’s 2026 AI Jobs Barometer found AI-exposed US entry-level jobs are 7 times more likely to require traditionally senior skills, and AI skills carry a 62% average wage premium. SHRM found 84% of HR professionals expect AI to raise demand for human skills such as critical thinking.

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